Instability in the Middle East

Middle Eastern instability is manifest externally in many ways: by crises afflicting governing regimes, the rise of political Islam, terrorism, revolution, civil war, increased migration, and the collapse of many states. This book examines the roots of this instability using a theoretically original and empirically supported historical sociological comparative analysis. Up till now interpretations of the development of the post-colonial Middle East have been dominated by two opposing theses. The first views the region as backward, unchanging and rigid, the second as undergoing excessively rapid transformation. This book offers an alternative perspective focusing on the highly uneven and unsynchronised pace of change in individual dimensions of Middle Eastern modernisation. What we are seeing is (1) rapid socio-demographic change (a sharp increase in the population and the proportion of young people, rapid urbanisation, and the expansion of the media and education), (2) slower and unstable economic change (dependency on oil exports, high unemployment), and (3) slow or regressive political change (erosion of the capacity to govern, the absence of democratisation and liberalisation). The theoretical model employed emerged from a critical reading of theories of modernisation and a concept of multiple modernities that also allows for an interrogation of the broader cultural, religious and international political context of uneven modernisation in the Middle East. This model is then tested empirically using the time series (1960–2010) of dozens of indicators covering the demographic, social, economic and political dimensions of the modernisation process.
In general the book does not concentrate on externally monitorable political actors and their rivalries, as so often is the case. Instead, it focuses on the political rivalries of deep, long-term cumulative demographic, social and economic change taking place beneath the surface. It looks at changes that are not simply taking place in individual countries of the Middle East, but since the end of the Second World War have affected the entire region and are responsible for the emergence of a Middle East completely different to that to which we were accustomed for many decades.

Karel Černý provides us a comprehensive investigation of the multicausal spectrum of factors of instability in the Middle Eastern region. The book puts to work the most sophisticated tools of historical sociology and offers us one of the deepest and most nuanced picture ever produced on the conundrum of desires for socio-political changes and the resilient blend of political authoritarianism and religious conservatism in the Middle East. It also includes a particularly insightful exploration of the now classic themes represented by the complex trade-off between Islamism and nationalism within the postcolonial politics of the region as well as the tensions between rulers and clerics. The work deserves the attention of students and scholars within sociology, history, and political science, as well as Middle East and Islamic Studies.
Armando Salvatore (Center for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University)

The contemporary Middle East is one of the great enigmas in world politics. A large and historically important region seems to be plagued by endemic violence, regime instability, religious extremism and a long series of developments which appear to contradict the conventional assumptions about modernity and modernization. In this book, an honest, comprehensive and original set of solutions are offered to the problems inherent in the Middle Eastern enigma. The author parts ways with conventional theories which tend to be either linear (hence unidimensional) or else over-ambitious (hence chaotic and confusing). Instead, this book concentrates on asymmetries, internal contradictions and unevenness of development as the key explanatory variables for the present state of Middle East politics. Set against a vast historical background and employing a balanced multi-disciplinary approach, the book makes a major theoretical contribution, at the same time offering a rich set of incisive insights into the apparent mysteries of the Middle East today.
Gabi (Ben-Dor, Haifa University, Israel)

Based on rigorous empirical research Cerny’s account of the causes and consequences of the Arab Spring should be relevant for scholars and policy makers alike.
Kamran Matin (University of Sussex, author of Historical Sociology and World History: Uneven and Combined Development over the Longue Durée)

Thanks to its interdisciplinary approach and meticulous research, Cerny’s work is relevant both for students searching for an introductory and comparative study of the Middle East, as well as for professional scholars interested in an original and challenging work on the causes for instability in the Middle East. The comparative methodology employed, alongside the detailed research it is based on, should inspire similar ventures into other modernization processes around the world.
Adam Coman (British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies)