AUC GEOGRAPHICA

Climate change directly or indirectly impacts the global atmosphere composition, which poses major environmental concern. The implications of climate change show noticeable change in rainfall patterns and onset worldwide. Prior knowledge of information of rainfall data is vital for many applications. In the present study, the onset, withdrawal, and duration of monsoon period have been studied for Purulia and Ranibandh locations in the Kangsabati river basin area for the period 2015 to 2022. The observed data were analysed and compared with the model data of CMIP6 GCM’s for 4 scenarios. Statistical parameters such as probability density function (PDF), Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), Coefficient of determination (R2), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were employed to evaluate the precision of matching between observed and modelled rainfall data. For onset, withdrawal, and duration of monsoon period, under 4 scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), highest R2 values range between 0.46 and 0.75 for CanESM5, EC-Earth3-veg and ACCESS-CM2 for Purulia and Ranibandh locations. For the duration of monsoon period between onset and withdrawal, R2 value of 0.54 and 0.46 has been observed for CanESM5-SSP370 and ACCESS_CM2-SSP126 for Purulia and Ranibandh respectively. On the other hand, for Purulia and Ranibandh, the lowest RMSE values has been observed for the model CanESM5, EC-Earth3-veg and ACCESS-CM2 for onset, withdrawal and monsoon period. The study identifies CanESM5, EC-Earth3-veg, and ACCESS-CM2 as the top-performing CMIP6 GCM models for accurately simulating monsoon dynamics onset, withdrawal, and monsoon length – in the Kangsabati basin, specifically in Purulia and Ranibandh locations. With these best performing models on projecting the precipitation for 2023 to 2100 for Purulia and 2022 to 2100 for Ranibandh, a very negligible shift has been observed in the onset and withdrawal periods. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of rainfall patterns and monsoon dynamics, offering valuable insights for both climate modelling and water resource management in the region.

1. Abbas, A., Bhatti, A. S., Ullah, S., Ullah, W., Waseem, M., Zhao, C., Dou, X., Ali, G. (2023): Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs. Journal of Arid Land 15(3), 274-296. CrossRef

2. Abbas, A., Waseem, M., Ahmad, R., Khan, K. A., Zhao, C., Zhu, J. (2022): Sensitivity analysis of greenhouse gas emissions at farm level: case study of grain and cash crops. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 29(54), 1-15. CrossRef

3. Arnell, N., Reynard, N. (1996): The Effects of Climate Change Due to Global Warming on River Flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology 183(3-4), 397-424. CrossRef

4. Chai, T., Draxler, R. R. (2014): Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? - Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature. Geoscientific Model Development 7(3), 1247-1250. CrossRef

5. Chen, C. A., Hsu, H. H., Liang, H. C. (2020): Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating the seasonal extreme precipitation in the Western North Pacific and East Asia. Weather Climate Extremes 31(1): 100303. CrossRef

6. Cook, B. I., Buckley, B. M. (2009): Objective determination of monsoon season onset, withdrawal, and length. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 114(D23): D23109. CrossRef

7. Demissie, T. A., Sime, C. H. (2021): Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating rainfall and air temperature over southwest Ethiopia. Heliyon 7(8): e07791. CrossRef

8. Dibaba, W. T., Miegel, K., Demissie, T. A. (2019): Evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models performance in simulating climate conditions of two catchments in Upper Blue Nile Basin. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 87: 101104. CrossRef

9. Epifani, C., Esposito, S., Vento, D. (2004): Persistence of wet and dry spells in Italy: First results in Milano from 1858 to 2000, in Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, International Commission on Clouds and Precipitation and International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, pp. 18-24, Bologna.

10. Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E. (2016): Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development 9(5), 1937-1958. CrossRef

11. IPCC (2014): Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., White, L. L. (eds.)]. Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, , pp. 1-32.

12. Kumar, S., Roshni, T., Kahya, E., Ghorbani, M. A. (2020): Climate change projections of rainfall and its impact on the cropland suitability for rice and wheat crops in the Sone river command, Bihar. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 142, 433-451. CrossRef

13. Kumar, S., Singh, V. (2024): Variation of extreme values of rainfall and temperature in Subarnarekha River basin in India. Journal of Water and Climate Change 15(3), 921-939. CrossRef

14. Marteau, R., Moron, V., Philippon, N. (2009): Spatial coherence of monsoon onset over western and central Sahel (1950-2000). Journal of Climate 22(5), 1313-1324. CrossRef

15. O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., Solecki, W. (2016): The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. CrossRef

16. Omerkhil, N., Chand, T., Alatalo, J. M., Pandey, R. (2020): Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in Yangi Qala District, Takhar, Afghanistan. Ecological Indicators 110: 105863. CrossRef

17. Ongoma, V., Chen, H., Gao, C. (2018): Evaluation of CMIP5 twentieth century rainfall simulation over the equatorial East Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 135, 893-910. CrossRef

18. Papadopoulos, T., Balta, M. E. (2022): Climate Change and big data analytics: Challenges and opportunities. International Journal of Information Management 63: 102448. CrossRef

19. Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P., Hanson, C. E. (2007): Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available online: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ar4_wg2_full_report.pdf (accessed on 15. 1. 2024).

20. Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., et al. (2017): The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change 42, 153-168. CrossRef

21. Roxy, M.K., Ghosh, S., Pathak, A., Athulya, R., Mujumdar, M., Murtugudde, R., Terray, P., Rajeevan, M. (2017): A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India. Nature Communications 8: 708. CrossRef

22. Sime, C. H., Demissie, T. A. (2022): Assessment and prediction of the climate change impact on crop yield, in Jimma Zone Upper Gilgel Gibe Districts, Ethiopia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 15: 313. CrossRef

23. Tabari, H. (2020): Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports 10(1): 13768. CrossRef

24. Tilya, F. F., Mhita, M. S. (2007): Frequency of wet and dry spells in Tanzania, in Climate and Land Degradation, edited by M. V. K. Sivakumar and N. Ndiang'ui, pp. 197-204, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. CrossRef

25. Towheed, A., Roandhni, T. (2021): Linking climate change to soil loss estimation in the Kosi river basin, India. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12(6), 2338-2363. CrossRef

26. Vinnarasi, R., Dhanya, C. T. (2022): Time-varying Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship through climate-informed covariates. Journal of Hydrology 604(1): 127178. CrossRef